Imran Khan's Government and the Role of the Pakistan Army: Key Factors for Survival

Introduction

The survival of Imran Khan's (IK) government largely hinges on the support it receives from the Pakistan Army. This alliance is fraught with complexities and implications, particularly in the context of upcoming national elections and potential civil unrest within the country. The current arrangement has been in place since IK's victory, supported by liberal interventions from the military.

Current Status and Future Outlook

The Imran Khan government has managed to maintain its position up to this point, largely due to the support provided by the Pakistan Army. This relationship is deeply rooted in the popular saying, 'Pakistan diyan Mauzan hi Mauzan Charon pasey Fauzan hi Fauzan!' which implies that Pakistan thrives and faces challenges while the Army is in control in all four directions. This statement underscores the crucial role the army plays in the political dynamics of the country, enabling IK to operate effectively.

Strategic Support from the Military

IK’s victory was partly facilitated by the military's strategic interventions, including election rigging, preventing non-supporters from voting, and intimidating opposition candidates. The military's involvement in these tactics continues to ensure that the government can operate with relative stability and reduce threats from political opponents. This support has been instrumental in maintaining public order and minimizing opposition strength.

People in Pakistan view IK with fondness, perceiving him as a refreshing change from traditional corrupt political parties. The goodwill generated by this perception acts as a significant asset for IK, bolstering his standing among the populace.

Contingency Plans and Future Challenges

While the PDM (Pakistan Democratic Movement) is a significant political force, its success in creating civil unrest could pose a challenge to the current status quo. The military's support ensures that such movements are managed, but the potential for unrest remains a concern. IK, aware of these risks, may resort to declaring a level of restrictive emergency if the situation escalates.

More importantly, the current term of the National Assembly is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023. General elections are scheduled to be held within a specific timeframe post-dissolution. This timeline gives IK ample time to consolidate his position and prepare for the next electoral contest. With a buffer of at least 60 days until the election and up to 90 days in worst-case scenarios, IK has the necessary time to navigate political challenges and maintain his government's stability.

Conclusion

The support from the Pakistan Army is a cornerstone of Imran Khan's governance and is expected to continue providing a stable environment conducive to his politics. However, the looming general elections and potential civil unrest necessitate careful management by both IK and the armed forces. As the political landscape remains fluid, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the current government structure in Pakistan.