Why Has Russia Not Deployed Its Most Advanced Weapons in Ukraine?

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has raised questions about the weapons and tactics used by both sides. Despite having some of the world's most advanced weapons, Russia has not shown a significant deployment of these assets in Ukraine. This article examines the reasons behind this, focusing on the current state of Russian weapons and their effectiveness during the conflict.

Russia's Weaponry and Their Current State

Russia's arsenal boasts some of the most advanced weapons, including hypersonic missiles and modern main battle tanks. However, the initial deployment of these weapons came at a heavy cost, with their stockpiles being largely depleted after the first year of the conflict. As a result, Russia has been forced to rely on outdated weapons and even to seek assistance from other countries, such as North Korea and Iran, to replenish its arsenal.

Advanced Weapons Deployed and Their Impact

Some of the advanced weapons claimed by Russia, such as hypersonic missiles, have not lived up to their expectations. These missiles, touted as the future of warfare, have proven to be ineffective against US Patriot missile defense systems, which are also Soviet-era remnants. Furthermore, many of Russia's best weapons, including prototypes and blueprints, have also been rendered ineffective due to severe combat damage and depletion.

The Reality of Battlefield Effectiveness

Ukraine has already destroyed a significant portion of Russia's advanced weaponry. For instance, the majority of the T-72 and T-80 tanks equipped with TIS (Target Identification System) modules have either been damaged or destroyed. While newer models like the T-90M are still being manufactured, questions remain about their full suite of sensors and whether TIS modules are fitted to a significant proportion of these tanks.

Current Inventory and Combat Readiness

Russia's tank inventory is far from robust. According to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense (MOD), the current stockpile of tanks has been significantly depleted. The number of tanks in pre-war stores is estimated at around 3200 to 3300, with the total inventory reaching approximately 8800 including 400 new T-90Ms and 98 T-72As. Even with the manufacture of about 250 new tanks annually and the refurbishment of a few hundred T-80Bs or T-72Bs, the military is struggling to maintain its numerical strength.

Tank Losses and Attrition

The battle losses of Russia's tank force are staggering. According to Oryx, even with an overestimated number of 600 tanks, the 600km front would only have around 230 tanks, which does not align with the offensive posture and tempo of the conflict. Adding 50 to the Oryx estimate gives a more realistic number of around 2180 tanks. This number still appears high for a struggling Russian military, and accounting for operational reserves and minimal covering forces along other borders can drastically reduce this number without significant increased losses.

New Arrivals and Capture

However, Ukraine has received significant modernization and new acquisitions, with over 600 modern or modernized tanks, including thermal imagers, and approximately 550 Russian tanks captured. These modern assets have helped Ukraine counterbalance the losses and maintain a numerical advantage.

Conclusion

Russia's failure to deploy its most advanced weapons in Ukraine is a reflection of the complex and unpredictable nature of the conflict. Ongoing attrition, limited stockpiles, and reliance on dated systems have led to a situation where even the best efforts cannot overcome the losses sustained. This article highlights the challenges facing Russia and the ongoing struggle to maintain combat effectiveness in the Ukraine conflict.